November 26, 2005Aside

Samosas won’t taste the same anymore

Lalu & Ganguly out, Merkel in. PublicGyan got these right

This is an archived blog post from The Acorn.

Lalu Prasad Yadav’s drubbing at the hands of the NDA was strongly indicated at PublicGyan. BIHAR-ELEC-16 (BJP alliance Oct-05 elections) was issued at 60 moolers. It rose to over 90 moolers within a month and stayed there, indicating that traders felt that Lalu would lose in a big way.

Similarly Ganguly’s ouster as India’s cricket captain was strongly indicated, with SGANGULY-28 (Saurav Ganguly loses his captaincy by end-2005) hitting close to 100 moolers and staying there. As in the case of the Bihar elections, this prediction-share too registered a high trading volume, thereby improving the quality of its prediction.

MERKEL-9 (Angela Merkel becomes chancellor by Oct-05) was one of the first few predictions to trade on PublicGyan, and given the transaction volume, traders got this one right too. So too for OIL-16, where a price of 35 moolers suggested that traders did not strongly expect oil prices to touch $70 per barrel in September 2005.

But among the well traded predictions, traders got BHAGWATI-19 (Jagdish Bhagwati wins a Nobel Prize for economics in 2005) wrong. But several traders felt that it was the Nobel Committee that got it wrong, and Bhagwati deserved to win it anyway.

With just over 150 traders, the PublicGyan Exchange is demonstrating a capability to get predictions right. According to feedback from users and advisers, completely opening up the exchange to new users will help create more liquidity and help improve the quality and accuracy of the predictions. Another suggestion has been to allow short-selling. Indeed, these are the very things that PublicGyan will incorporate in the coming revision. Stay tuned and keep trading.

Related Links: PublicGyan featured in TIMEs cover story

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