October 15, 2006Foreign Affairs

Predicting a change of guard in Dhaka

And some dazzling ponditry

This is an archived blog post from The Acorn.

Nazim Kamran Choudhury is a brave man. For he has dared to predict the outcome of Bangladesh’s coming general elections. Starting with a survey that shows 53% of the voters undecided and plenty of analysis, Choudhury is of the opinion that Shiekh Hasina’s Awami League will be back in power.

If the (Awami League, AL) is able to attract even half the undecided voters, they will win the next election. If they are able to convince 55% of the undecided to vote for the Party, they will win by a landslide as large as that the (Bangladesh National Party, BNP) got last time around.

…Under these circumstances, I do not see the Greater BNP Alliance (with JI & JP(E)) getting more than 80 seats in the next Parliament. The AL share will be around 180 seats, with about 40 seats going to AL Allies, “others” and Independents. [NKC via Conversations with an Optimist]

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